Sunday, October 31, 2010

How does 'The System' illustrate the features of Science discussed in 'The Truth is Out There' ?

In “The Truth is out there”, we're trying to define the term “science” and deciding whether or not science tells us the truth. The way in which we can tell the difference between science and non-science is to collect realistic evidences, not just state theories, to support the beliefs that we state are true.

Inductive reasoning, falsification, Occam's Razor and Paradigm shift are the main features in human science. By using definitions of these terms we can illustrate their power to everyday life situations in this case, winning a horse racing bet five times in a row. For some people, applying the Arctic circle law in mathematics to win all of the bets is virtually ludicrous. But for Kaniesha, the woman who would risk everything winning every single bets to raise his father's salary, she's completely confident in “The System”.

“The System” is a new type of science involve in harvesting logical thinking to make accurate predictions which are out of this world. Losing any bets is a big frustration. According to Darren Brown, the founder of The System, in order for her to win the bet, The System use inductive reasoning, which is making a decision using past experiences, by dividing all random people participate in the bet (approx. 7,700) equally into the names of difference horses taking part in the race (start with Race 1 and finish at Race 5, each race 4 or 5 different horses) and select the horse where Kaniesha is put together with other people in a column. This is similar to putting a deck of playing cards into two columns red and black, or put them into 4 suits, could be in separate red and black. The results? The horse which suggested by The System to Kaniesha did win the race!

So what does this mean? All the people, including Kaniesha, who won the 1st bet is again being separated into the names of the horses in the 2nd race. The horses represent playing cards and the cards of people who won the race is divided evenly onto the four. Astonishingly, this method of elimination works for Kaniesha all the way through the bet. Until the last race, when Darren falsify his prediction and Kaniesha was shocked that her great investment journey ended. Somehow, Darren changed his decision in the end and bringing home ₤3000 for Kaniesha, that's a heck of cash !!

For those who lost the bet, there was a falsification, which basically means that science could be proved wrong not by verifying statements but by giving false and unclear statements. These people weren't believe in The System. Does it exist? We do not know, Basically is just an Occam's Razor (the simplest explanation are the best) If anyone would accepts one particular reason for doing something, for example flipping a coin head face up ten times in a row, or suggesting that the moon has an egg shape and drifting 4cm away from earth every 10 years, then it must be a revolution in scientific thinking and justify true beliefs in the laws of the universe. This is also known as Paradigm shift. 7,700 took the bet, 7,699 have falsification, only Kaniesha made it. 50/50 change of winning or losing varies on a seasaw, but what is the actual percentage of winner and losers? How did he chose the exact champion for Kaniesha? What makes Darren alter his prediction at the end?

A famous quote from Einstein: “We don't play chess with the universe” It is impossible to hire a psychic to predict the future. The universal law is there revolving around us, we've holding our own knowledge of the universe itself. The rules were set by god, and we cannot change it. The elements must follow a systematic order, birth of planet Earth, colonization and evolvement of species for thousand of years, extirpation, regeneration... the process keeps on...

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